Sunday, October 2, 2011

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Quiel) Update #11

Tropical Storm Nalgae continues to weaken as it moves away from Luzon. It was last located approximately 540km west northwest of Manila. It is moving westward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 110kph gusting to 140kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has completely dropped all Signal Warnings across the country. Nalgae is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight.

IR Image below shows the ragged-looking Nalgae. It doesn't look symmetrical either although it is still maintaing some strong convective activity, particularly near the center and also the southwestern quadrant. North and eastern sides sort of suffering due to drier air, subsidence, and stronger wind shear.


We are forecasting Nalgae to continue moving westward across the South China Sea, maintaining Tropical Storm intensity up to landfall in Vietnam. As far as the track goes, some models take it towards Hainan while the others take Nalgae towards Central Vietnam. Our forecast takes the middle track and we are basically bringing Nalgae just south of Hainan by Wednesday morning. It should then make landfall in Central Vietnam by late Wednesday night (local time), approximately 450km south of Hanoi. It will then weaken to a tropical depression as it tracks into Laos and Thailand.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Invest 90W, east of the Philippines, remains very weak and disorganized. We are not really confident on a future storm (named "Ramon") to form this week, contrary to what PAGASA is saying. Just always make sure to stop by for the latest warnings here. We do want to note though, that computer models are sort of developing a very weak system southwest of Guam by this weekend.

We will have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100211

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