Tuesday, October 4, 2011

TS Nalge Update #13 w/ Video (Landfall)

Note: You'll find our Video Update at the end of this post.

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Former Bagyong Quiel) has now made landfall in southeastern Hainan. It was last located approximately 150km south southwest of Haikou or about 60km north of Sanya, or about 490km southeast of Hanoi. It has accelerated to 25kph moving northwest. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75kph gusting to 110kph.

TS Nalgae continues to weaken due to strong wind shear and land interaction. It has brought rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm across Hainan and Leizhou Peninsula. Haikou Airport also recorded wind gusts of up to 80kph earlier today. Winds across Eastern Hainan, have-for the most part-weakened as the storm continues to pull away. Nevertheless, we still have some scattered light to moderate rain bands from Nalgae as shown in this radar image. There could still be 50 to 100mm of additional rain for tonight.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

Latest forecast for Nalgae remains unchanged. We are still expecting it to make landfall in Vietnam later tomorrow night or very early Wednesday morning 350km south of Hanoi. Due to land interaction there is a chance it could weaken to Tropical Depression before making landfall. Either way, Nalgae should still bring moderate to heavy rain across parts of Vietnam and Laos. It is forecast to dissipate by Thursday or Friday across Laos/Thailand area.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Another system we are watching is Invest 90W located northwest of Palau or about 600km east of Visayas. Due to weaker wind shear today, 90W has shown improvements with regards to low-level banding and overall convective activity. You can see in the VIS Image below of the greater cloud cover and somewhat cyclonic flow.


Computer models are forecasting this to become a very weak cyclone by as early as Friday. Most of the models bring 90W toward the northwest which could put it to NE Luzon by early next week. Due to stronger wind shear near the Philippines, we are not really expecting 90W to develop into anything significant although it does have a chance of becoming a Tropical Storm. As always, 90W could bring rains towards the Eastern half of the Philippines, from Visayas towards Luzon, especially if it develops.

Right now though, it is still in the early stages of development and we should not worry ourselves too much--just yet. We'll continue monitoring this storm for possible developments.

Video Update

Another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100411

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