Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Typhoon Roke Update #16 (LANDFALL)

Typhoon Roke has weakened to a Category 1 after making landfall near Hamamatsu in the Shizuoka Prefecture. It is now moving across Yamanashi Prefecture, approximately 130km east southeast of Tokyo or about 120km east of Nagoya. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph gusting to 185kph. Roke is currently moving northeastward at a speed of 40kph.

Wind reports across Shizuoka, Yamanashi, and surrounding prefectures indicate sustained winds of just below typhoon-force: around 100kph. However, there are numerous reports of typhoon-gusts of as high as 170kph. Pressure report from Hamamastu recorded a minimum of 948mb just as Roke made landfall about 3 hours ago.

Latest radar image from JMA showing the coverage of moderate to VERY HEAVY RAIN affecting much of Kinki and Kanto Region. There is also a LEVEL-2 TORNADO PROBABILITY of 5-10% for Shizuoka, Yamanashi, and Tokyo Prefectures. Rainfall rates of as high as 70mm in an hour have been reported in many areas, resulting in flash floods and swollen rivers. Please always heed the official warnings of the authorities for your area.

Radar Image from JMA, for more images click HERE

This VIS Image shows the approximate location of TY Roke's center in relation to Japan. You can also see the huge and elongated cloud formation north or Roke. This is associated with a frontal boundary that is currently interacting with Roke. These two systems will bring massive amounts of rainfall throughout Honshu today and into tomorrow. Total rainfall amounts could exceed 500mm, and perhaps even 1000mm in some areas.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The forecast have not really changed. We are expecting Roke to move northwest of Tokyo later tonight, weakening to a Tropical Storm as it interacts with the Japanese Alps. It will then move across the Tohoku Region, passing near Fukushima and Sendai tonight. It is expected to exit Honshu very early tomorrow. Roke will then pass just south of Hokkaido as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Tropical Update

A developing low pressure area was spotted near Palau. Invest 98W is currently exhibiting low-level circulation both picked up by ASCAT and multispectral satellite imagery. It is still too weak and unorganized and JTWC is only rating this area as "LOW". However, computer models are in really good agreement that this will develop into a cyclone by this weekend. The eventual track is still uncertain although the likely areas will be between Visayas and the East China Sea. We'll continue monitoring this system for signs of development.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

We'll have another update on the tropics as well as on Roke tomorrow morning.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 092111

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