Thursday, September 22, 2011

Extra-Tropical Roke Update #17 (FINAL)

Former Typhoon Roke slammed Japan yesterday and quickly moved through the island of Honshu bringing strong winds and heavy rain. As of now, there are unconfirmed reports of casualties that range from 8 to 14 people; dozens of people have also been reported missing. Roke also dumped as high as 500mm in some areas although the majority received around 250mm.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Roke has transitioned now into a strong extra-tropical cyclone with winds of up to 100kph. It is quickly moving through the Kuril Islands at a speed of 40kph. It is expected to approach the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) tomorrow. JMA and JTWC have given their final warnings for this storm. Likewise this will be our final warning on Roke as well.

Tropical Update

We are also watching two systems that could develop into a cyclone. Invest 97W is located in the South China Sea, about 500km southwest of Hong Kong. ASCAT picked up a somewhat organized low-level circulation center with winds ranging from 20 to 30kph. Conditions are slightly favorable with wind shear around 10 to 15kts. Sea temperatures are high in this area as well. JTWC is giving 97W as "LOW" chance at the moment. Computer models do develop it into a weak storm sometime this weekend and could either affect Hainan or Vietnam.

The other system we are watching is 98W, in the Philippine Sea just northeast of Yap. ASCAT has also picked up an elongated LLCC with winds of 30 to 40kph. Conditions are highly favorable and JTWC has upgraded its chance to "MEDIUM". There is a good agreement, as we mentioned yesterday, among computer models on the future development of 98W. The consensus takes it towards Luzon or just north of it by the middle of next week as a potential Tropical Storm. Please do note that these preliminary outputs from models can change so please stay tuned.

IR Image from NOAA

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092211

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