Friday, September 23, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 98W has improved today prompting the JTWC to put up a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert which gives 98W a "HIGH" chance of become a cyclone within the next 24 hours. The partially exposed circulation was last located approximately 620km west of Guam or about 400km away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Winds are estimated to be around 30 to 40kph based on a recent ASCAT pass.

Invest 98W could enter the PAR later tomorrow and will be named "Pedring". The disturbance features a relatively large circulation with fragmented convective activity which has actually increased over the past few hours. Sea surface temperatures are very warm--around 29 to 30C. Wind shear in the area is also light--5 to 10kts.

Computer models are in really good agreement with the formation of 98W. Furthermore, the spread on the forecast track is not that big. The consensus among the 00z model guidance suite takes 98W towards Northern Luzon by the middle of next week either as a strong Tropical Storm or a weak Typhoon. It is still too early to iron out the details so please stay with us for the latest developments on 98W.

Invest 97W in the South China Sea remains largely disorganized and chances from JTWC is still "LOW".

IR Image from NOAA

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 092311

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