Saturday, September 17, 2011

TS Roke (Onyok) Update #7

For update on TS Sonca, please see our separate update.

Tropical Storm Roke (Bagyong Onyok) continues to intensify as it drifts slowly away from Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph gusting to 130kph. Roke was last located approximately 280km southeast of Okinawa, moving south southeastward at 5kph.

Latest VIS image shows an improving organization with outflow established on the southern periphery. Convective activity is also strong, particularly on the eastern half. Microwave image also suggesting an eyewall is nearly complete.

VIS image from NRLMRY

This latest radar image from JMA also picking the center of Roke just southwest of Daito-jima

Radar from JMA, for more images click HERE

Tropical Storm Roke is currently drifting southeastward in a weak steering environment. It is forecast to start making a u-turn tomorrow morning as it begins to be steered again by the Ridge to the northeast. Due to warm temperatures and weak shear, Roke could become a typhoon by tomorrow afternoon. It will move northwestward and could near Amami by Sunday night before turning northeastward in response to an approaching trough. Roke will then accelerate quickly, maintaining typhoon intensify before perhaps making landfall in the Kii Peninsula by Wednesday.

There are still some disagreements among computer models and our forecast is aligned with a blend of ECMWF and GFS forecast.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

While Roke may miss Okinawa, we are still expecting tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph tomorrow. Heavy rain and rough waves will also impact the islands. Amami-Oshima may get higher winds by Tuesday as Roke passes just to the east. Please remember to always tune in to your local news channel for OFFICIAL FORECASTS and WARNINGS from JMA.

Locations of Roke and Sonca. Invest 96W in the South China Sea still has a "LOW" chance of developing according to JTWC.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 091711

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