Saturday, September 17, 2011

Typhoon Sonca Update #4

Sonca strengthened last night into a typhoon. It is now located approximately 900km south southeast of Tokyo, moving northwestward at 30kph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120kph gusting to 150kph.

The ragged eye that was visible on the IR image last night is now gone. However, the recent microwave image suggests the eyewall is still intact. Convective activity remains good as well. Conditions remain favorable for supporting further intensification for the next 12 hours. After that, Sonca will begin to move over cooler waters and could lose typhoon intensity by as early as tomorrow.

Image from FNMOC

There has been no change with the track forecast. We are still expecting Sonca to move northwestward but eventually recurve towards the northeast, away from Japan. TS Roke is far enough to not cause any deflection with Sonca's movement.

We'll have more update later this afternoon.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 091811

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