Saturday, September 24, 2011

TS Nesat (Pedring) Update #2

Tropical Storm Nesat has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been assigned the local name Bagyong "Pedring" by the PAGASA. TS Nesat was last located approximately 1,450km east of Manila and is moving west northwestward at around 25kph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85kph gusting to 110kph.

Latest look at the VIS image shows the huge circulation of Nesat with improving banding and a well-established outflow.


Conditions are highly favorable for continued development with weak wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. Nesat could become a typhoon as early as tomorrow. Models and agencies are also aggressive with winds; JTWC is actually forecasting Nesat to become a Super Typhoon before making landfall in Luzon by next week. That, of course, can change.

As for the track, latest 00z Model Guidance are basically split into two scenarios: a track across Northern Luzon (somewhere around Isabela), or a track just north of Luzon (across Luzon Strait). Right now, I am leaning more towards the first scenario, which is supported both by GFS and ECMWF. Based on the forecasts, TS Nesat/Pedring could make landfall by late Tuesday night or very early Wednesday Morning. As you can see on my map, I am also expecting Nesat to become a very strong Typhoon prior to landfall.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow, and hopefully we will also be able to put up a video update so stay tuned for that!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092411

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