Thursday, September 8, 2011

TS Kulap (Nonoy) Update #4

A very busy day in the Western Pacific as we are currently tracking FOUR (4) disturbances!

Tropical Storm Kulap (Nonoy)

Let's start with Kulap which has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility late this morning and was subsequently named "Nonoy" by PAGASA. TS Kulap has since exited the PAR as it moves northwestward towards the Ryukyu Islands. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph gusting to 95kph. Kulap is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

Latest visual satellite image shows the exposed low-level circulation center. You can also see below the higher cloud tops (brighter white) trailing behind the center. TS Kulap is currently experiencing 20kt wind shear which is displacing the main convection away and south of the storm. This type of environment is really hindering Kulap from intensifying further.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest forecasts from agencies and computer models are in really good agreement with regards to the track. TS Kulap will basically continue moving northwestward, perhaps nearing Amami Oshima by Friday afternoon. It will then track across East China Sea and could approach Jeju Island by this weekend (Sunday). We are keeping Kulap's intensity at a weak to moderately strong tropical storm. We don't think it'll strengthen towards Typhoon Status.

Furthermore, Kulap is a very small and compact system that its tropical storm-force winds (around 65kph) only extends to about 100km away from the center. Okinawa may not even get strong winds tomorrow, although they could get increased surf and some renegade showers and thunderstorms so just be careful! This storm is not going to be a huge rain-maker either due to the displacement of the main convection. It has a chance, however, of consolidating and intensifying further as it tracks north across East China Sea, due to lower shear and high sea temperatures.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Invest 90W

Another system we are watching is Invest 90W which was last located approximately 750km northeast of Guam. It is not a storm yet although JTWC has upgraded its chances of becoming a cyclone within 24 hours to "MEDIUM". Computer models are also keen in developing 90W within the next 2 to 3 days. Most of them do keep it as a fairly weak TS throughout next week although we do now that that could change. With the Subtropical Ridge south of Japan expected to remain in place for the next few days, 90W could continue drifting westward towards either Taiwan or Okinawa by late next week.

Invest 91W

Yet another system, just east of 90W has been spotted. This system was located approximately 580km east of Wake Island, well away from Guam.This system is in the early stages and JTWC is keeping its chances at "LOW". However, computer models are also showing a weak TS forming out of this one in the next 3 to 5 days.

Disturbance in the South China Sea

This disturbance west of Palawan, embedded in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, has persisted for almost 24 hours now with vigorous convection. An ASCAT pass (which measures wind speed and direction at the ocean surface) has detected weak turning with the winds of speeds of 10 to 15knots. We are also expecting slow development with this system over the next few days. Convergence is still pretty low near the surface although divergence in the upper levels is good. Wind shear is weak to moderate (10 to 20kts) and sea surface temperatures are high.

IR Analysis from NOAA

We will issue another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 090811

No comments:

Post a Comment