Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Tropical Storm Kulap Update #3

Tropical Storm Kulap accelerates towards the Okinawa area just outside the PAR. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph gusting to 95kph. Kulap is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

TS Kulap is beginning to encounter some stronger shear which is displacing the higher clouds and convection south of the exposed low-level center as you can see on the image below.


Latest computer model guidance keep Kulap as a fairly weak tropical storm throughout its lifetime. Track forecasts still diverge with some models taking Kulap just south of Okinawa while others bring it towards Kyushu. The consensus, however, shows the storm moving near Amami Islands with the closest approach as early as Saturday.

Another developing disturbance has been spotted near the Marianas. Invest 91W is still in the early stages of development although computer models do show a possible cyclone forming within the next 2 to 4 days.

We'll have more on these later this afternoon.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 090811

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