Friday, September 2, 2011

Tropical Storm Talas Update #16 (Landfall)

Talas has weakened slightly and is now down to a tropical storm, hours before it makes landfall in Shikoku. The center of the storm was last located approximately 230km south southeast of Kochi (Shikoku) or about 350km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 110kph gusting to 150kph. Tropical Storm Talas is moving northward at 20kph.

Latest radar image from JMA showing bands of moderate to heavy rain now impacting Shikoku, much of Honshu, as well as Eastern Kyushu. These bands can have rainfall rates of 10-20mm/hr. Heavier rates could drop as much as 50mm in an hour please be wary of possible landslides and flash floods in your area. So far, weather stations in Shikoku and Honshu are already reporting total rainfall amounts of 50 to 150mm. We expect additional 100 to 200mm tonight and into tomorrow as Talas moves on through the area. Heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be found in Shikoku as well as in the Kii Peninsula and also the Chugoku and Kinki/Kansai Regions of Honshu.

Also note that along these very heavy bands are the possibility for thunder and also a slight chance for tornadic activity--very weak in terms of the Fujita Scale of around EF0 to EF1 but can still damage homes and properties. Based on the latest radar data, increased chances for tornadoes are in the prefectures of Wakayama, Osaka, Nara, Hyogo, and Okayama.

PLEASE, PLEASE always tune in to your local news channel or radio station for the latest updates and warnings regarding the storm

Radar Image showing Shikoku from JMA, for more radar images, please click HERE

Winds are also beginning to pick up for much of Shikoku, particularly the coastal areas. Right now some places are seeing winds of 30 to 50kph but that is expected to increase dramatically as night falls. Storm surges will also be threat for areas near the sea, including the Seto Inland Sea.

Wind Reports around Shikoku (in m/s) from JMA, for more reports, please click HERE

Tropical Storm Talas is on track to make landfall in Shikoku later tonight, around 10pm Japan Time near Muroto--southwest of Kochi. It will then track across the island and into Honshu through the night. It will exit into the Sea of Japan by Saturday morning. It will then accelerate towards the northeast, beginning an extra-tropical transition as early as Sunday. Talas could reach the Sakhalin Islands in Far-East Russia by early next week as a weak system. Rain and waves will still be a threat though along the western portions of Northern Honshu including Hokkaido for the next 2 to 3 days.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We won't have update until tomorrow morning so please watch the TV or listen to the radio for sudden announcements from your local officials. Please stay safe!
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 090211

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