Sunday, September 18, 2011

Tropical Storm Roke Update #9

For update on Typhoon Sonca, please read our separate update.

Tropical Storm Roke (Former "Bagyong Onyok") has finally exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility earlier today, and this time it's for good! It was last located approximately 300km east of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110kph gusting to 150kph. Sonca is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

Latest IR image shows the center--which is less than 100km west of Daito Islands--remain cloud-filled. Convective activity remains great with cloud temps reaching up to -80C. Equatorward outflow is good as well. It is the northwestern periphery of Roke that is kinda looking ragged which could indicate stronger winds aloft. Conditions remain favorable for intensification, however, and we are still expecting Roke to become a typhoon perhaps tomorrow.


Wind reports from Daito show a maximum sustained winds of up to 100kph and gusts of up to 160kph which were recorded earlier today. Latest reports show that the winds have dramatically decreased to just around 40 to 60kph which could indicate that the storm center is just nearby.

Radar from JMA also showing bands of heavy rain from Roke and you could also make out the center based on the image. The radar presentation here is not that great due to the limitations of the technology which could not really pick up the whole structure of the storm.

Radar from JMA, for more images click HERE

As for the forecast, TS Roke will continue moving northward slowly tonight and could intensify into a typhoon tomorrow. By Monday morning it will be around 250km northeast of Okinawa and by Monday night, it will be less than 200km east of Amami-Oshima. Rain and gale-force winds might affect these areas particularly Amami which could get tropical storm force winds of up to 100kph or stronger by Monday night.

TS Roke is then forecast to accelerate to the northeast in response to the approaching trough. It is also forecast to make landfall southwest of Tokyo by Wednesday afteroon (Japan Time). Roke will likely maintain typhoon status until landfall and should weaken down a tropical storm as it moves across Kanto. It will exit Honshu by Wednesday night and could begin extra-tropical transition by Thursday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. Please stay safe out there!
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 091811

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