Sunday, September 18, 2011

Typhoon Sonca Update #5

For update on Tropical Storm Roke, please read our separate update.

Typhoon Sonca has further intensified as it continued to accelerate quickly to the north. Maximum sustained winds are now 140kph gusting to 180kph. Sonca was last located approximately 550km southeast of Tokyo. It is moving northward at 30kph.

The latest IR image continues to show the ragged eye with convective activity nicely blowing around. Ouflow to the southeast is also well-developed which has helped the storm intensify further despite cooler sea temperatures.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Wind shear remains weak and dry air has not really affected the storm yet. Therefore, we still expect Sonca to intensify tonight, reaching its peak before starting to weaken tomorrow. It will maintain typhoon status as it passes east of Tokyo tomorrow. It will then shoot northeast and could become extra-tropical by as early as Tuesday. No direct impacts expected from Sonca aside from strong waves and rip currents all along the east coast of Honshu. Please listen to JMA for the official marine warnings!

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 091811

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