Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Tropical Depression 13W Update #1

Some quick updates on Muifa and Merbok: Muifa has dissipated over the NE China area. However, it did take the lives of 4 people in South Korea and 10 people in North Korea; no deaths have been reported in China. It has also dropped around 100mm across the region. Merbok, on the other hand, has transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone and is now moving to the northeast.

Back to Tropical Depression 13W, this system remains weak and largely disorganized with moderate shear (15 to 20kts) displacing the convection to the north of the center. It was last located approximately 950km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are around 55kph gusting to 80kph. TD 13W is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

Wind shear is forecast to weaken slightly allowing TD 13W to at least maintain its intensity. There is a chance it could intensify into a tropical storm depending on the environment. Nevertheless, this system is not expected to hit Japan. It is forecast to turn to the northeast avoiding Honshu.

The Philippines, meanwhile, will continue to experience scattered showers, especially in the afternoon. Good news is that the weather has cleared for most of Luzon, especially in Subic, Zambales. The best chance for rain is now in Visayas and Mindanao. Expect 24-hr rainfall amounts of 50-100mm in these areas.

Aside from TD 13W, there are no other tropical disturbances in the Pacific. We'll have the next update same time tomorrow.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 081011

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