Monday, August 8, 2011

Tropical Storm Muifa Update #32

Tropical Storm Muifa continues to weaken as it moves over Northeastern China, it was last located moving across the provinces of Liaoning and Jilin, near the North Korean border. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65kph gusting to 95kph. Muifa is moving north northeastward at 35kph.

Radar from China continues to indicate bands of light to moderate rain affecting NE China. Stations there also reporting rainfall amounts ranging from 100 to 200mm. North Korea is also reporting around 100mm of rain has fallen. Rain should continue for most of these parts for at least another 12 hours.

Radar image from CMA

For more on China Meteorological Administration, please click HERE

Muifa is forecast to dissipate within the next 24-36 hours and JTWC have actually released their final warning for this system. Nevertheless, we'll continue updating you on this just as JMA does.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Merbok has also weakened while continuing to move north. Still located over the North Pacific and is still over 1000km away from Japan. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85kph gusting to 110kph. Merbok is moving northeastward at 35kph. Merbok is not forecast to hit any land and should transition into an extra-tropical cyclone over the next 2 days. JTWC has also released their final warning for Merbok but likewise, we'll still release updates until JMA stops.

Looking onto the Pacific, we actually have another system that bears watching. Invest 92W, well west of Guam, has shown increasing and improving signs of development. IR and VIS image shows blowing convection that is slightly displaced north and northwest of the low level circulation center. JTWC have released a TCFA or Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for this system--giving it a "High" chance of developing into a cyclone within the next 24 hours. Computer models are not really optimistic with regards to strength. Sea temperatures remain high although 92W is in an area of moderate wind shear (around 20kts) that could hamper its development in the next 2 days. We will continue watching this and update you for any changes.

VIS image of Invest 92W from NRLMRY

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 080911

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