Monday, July 18, 2011

Typhoon Ma-On Update #15 w/ Video

Note: You will find our latest Video Update at the end of this post.

Typhoon Ma-On continues to weaken as it tracks north towards the Japanese Mainland. Ma-On was last located approximately 380km east southeast of Amami. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 155kph with gusts of up o 200kph. Ma-On is now a Category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and will probably remain that way up to landfall.

Latest wind reports out of Kagoshima indicate increasing northeasterly winds with some stations reporting winds of as high as 50-70kph already. Shikoku is still reporting light east winds. Okinawa and Amami islands are reporting 20-40kph with Daito islands reporting 30-40kph. In terms of precipitation, outer rain bands are now making their way across Kyushu and Shikoku with light to moderate rain with some pockets of heavy thunderstorms.

Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyus will now actually see some improving conditions. They actually just had a few instances of rain showers and reported relatively light winds all throughout today so they definitely dodged a bullet with this typhoon!

In terms of organization, Typhoon Ma-On continues to show an eye on infra-red and microwave image. The Eyewall Replacement Cycle is now complete although it only decreased the intensity. JTWC is still forecasting this to re-intensify within the next 24-36 hours, probably peaking at around 175kph. With the latest trends though, I personally don't think Ma-On will restrengthen again. Although there's a good chance it will retain that Category 2 intensity upon landfall on Wednesday.

Forecasts are still the same with the consensus showing an eastern Shikoku landfall. Our forecast here is the same as well. We think that by Wednesday morning, Ma-On makes landfall in Eastern Shikoku around the Tokushima Prefecture. It will then slow down as it turns to the east weakening to a Category 1 typhoon as it interacts with land. By Thursday morning, it will be south of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area perhaps as a tropical storm. Never let your guard down though as areas mentioned will still likely see some strong winds beginning tomorrow in Kagoshima, Wednesday for Honshu, and will last thru Thursday. Heavy rains from the inner bands of Ma-On will also bring amounts of as much as 200mm in 24 hours so flash floods and landslides will definitely be a threat.

Always listen to JMA's official warnings and forecasts!

Video Update

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 071811

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