Sunday, July 17, 2011

Typhoon Ma-On Update #14

First of all, I just want to congratulate Japan for winning the 2011 Women's World Cup! They definitely deserved it. Hats off to the US team as well, they fought a valiant fight!

Moving on, Typhoon Ma-On continues to weaken as it moves northward. It was last located approximately 530km east of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 165kph gusting to 210kph. Ma-On is moving north-northwestward at 20kph.

Latest IR and microwave images continue to show that the eyewall replacement is still in its last phase. Combined with the dry air, Ma-On has weakened considerably compared to 24 hours ago. It is still forecast, though, that Ma-On will re-intensify again before making landfall. Latest IR image shows cooling cloud tops, especially on the southern side, that might indicate Ma-On is on its way to restrengthen again.

The islands are now reporting NNW winds of 30-40kph, while Daito is reporting around 50kph winds. Rain bands are now also making their way towards Okinawa and the Ryukyus. Not as widespread as we have thought but occasional moderate rains should be expected throughout today.

Forecasts barely changed today with the consensus still showing a landfall somewhere in Shikoku or Honshu, near Wakayama. Due to the recent trends, however, some agencies have lowered their forecast peak intensities for Ma-On although most are still expecting it to make landfall as a strong Category 2 or a weak Category 3 by early Wednesday morning.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 071811

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