Sunday, July 17, 2011

Typhoon Ma-On (Ineng) Update #13

Note: You will find our Video Update at the end of this post.

Typhoon Ma-On has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility earlier today and is given the local name "Ineng" by PAGASA. Ma-On is now the ninth (9th) cyclone to enter-or form-inside the PAR. It is expected, though, that as early as tonight Ma-On will exit the PAR. The country is not forecast to feel the brunt of the typhoon either.

Typhoon Ma-On (Bagyong Ineng) was last located approximately 650km east southeast of Okinawa or about 1,330km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 195kph gusting to 240kph. Ma-On is moving northwestward at 25kph.

Recent IR and microwave images suggest that the Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) that began about 12 hours ago may now be ending. Recent image shows the inner eyewall is now almost gone with the outer, and much larger, eyewall beginning to improve. Convection, on the other hand, is still weak and dry air and subsidence from the TUTT continue to disrupt the intensification.

It is expected, though, that after the EWRC is complete, Typhoon Ma-On will begin to re-intensify again probably attaining a peak intensity of around 220kph in 24-36 hours. It will then slowly weaken as it reaches Southern Shikoku.

Okinawa right now, is beginning to see some gusty winds of 20-30kph. We expect the winds to there to continue increasing throughout today. The islands will see strongest winds tomorrow morning as Ma-On passes some 500km east of Okinawa. Outer rainbands will probably affect them also.

Computer models and weather agencies are now in much better agreement. Our forecast here at SGB, have shifted to the south just a little bit. We are still expecting a landfall in eastern Shikoku or Honshu south of Osaka by Wednesday morning (Japan Time). Based on the favorable sea conditions near Japan, we expect Ma-On to maintain that Category 3 intensity all the way up before making landfall. It should weaken to a Category 2 as it crosses Honshu and eventually to a Category 1 as it passes just south of Tokyo Metropolitan Area. We forecast that by Friday, Ma-On should be over the Pacific Ocean as a tropical storm undergoing an extra-tropical transition.

Based on latest data, tropical storm winds extend as far as 500km away from the storm center so even if the earthquake and tsunami hit areas in Sendai will not feel the full brunt of Ma-On, still expect some strong winds and heavy rain next week.

Video Update

Issued (0830 UTC) 071711

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