Sunday, July 10, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 94W or "Goring" is now moving towards Eastern China. It was last located approximately 180km west northwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds, based on METAR and JMA reports, are around 15-25kph. Minimum pressure around Northern Taiwan has risen to about 1000-1004mb. This LPA is now on a weakening trend with its LLCC now barely visible. It is expected to continue moving west northwestward and make landfall in Fujian Province, just north of Fuzhou, within the next few hours. Light to moderate rain will affect northern half of Taiwan as well as Eastern China in the next day or so.

Image from NRLMRY showing the exposed circulation center and the LPA's forecast track (red arrow). Blue arrows indicate wind direction from latest reports.

Invest 90W, meanwhile, continues to organize as it moves slowly westward. An ASCAT pass picked up the LPA's weak circulation and is showing winds of 20-40kph. Convective activity has improved but still mediocre and a little bit sparse. SSMIS 37Ghz shows some banding on the low levels especially south of the center. AFD from NWS Guam and JTWC discussions note the presence of a TUTT cell northwest of the storm. This is inhibiting the system's development. 90W is still forecast to become a cyclone by the models however. JTWC has also upgraded the probability to "Medium". The LPA right now is in a weak wind shear environment (10-20kts) and high sea surface temperatures. Based on current trends, we do expect this to become a weak tropical depression as early as tomorrow.

Monsoonal rains, meanwhile, continue to affect the Philippines especially Luzon. Recent rainfall reports are around 100mm (for 24hours). Expect scattered showers to continue with isolated pockets of heavy rain. We don't expect the conditions to improve anytime soon, unfortunately.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 071011

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