Monday, July 11, 2011

Tropical Update | TCFA for Invest 90W

A busy day today as we continue to monitor the Western Pacific for invests and cyclones. Right now we have two invests: 90W and 92W.

Invest 90W is now looking much better as it continues to organize in the Western Pacific. The JTWC has put out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the said low pressure. Recent ASCAT, AMSRE, and IR images show banding at the lower levels into a closed circulation. Afternoon convective activity is also observed with cooling cloud tops especially south of the LLCC. Invest 90W right now is estimated to have maximum sustained winds of 30-40kph with a minimum pressure of 1006mb. The disturbance is moving west southwestward at around 10kph. Looking at the latest developments, I won't be surprised if this will be upgraded into at Tropical Depression as early as tonight (Philippine Time). Based on long range forecasts, it looks like the future storm will not affect the Philippines although it could enter the PAR by the end of this week. Okinawa and the Ryuku Islands should be more cautious regarding this storm as the EURO model bring this storm towards that area, forecasting it to become a major typhoon. Remember that that scenario is still more than one week away. There is no guarantee yet it will spare the Philippines or it will move towards Okinawa. Always be informed as these forecasts can change, and do change, day to day.

Invest 92W, meanwhile, was located approximately 1450km east northeast of Manila. Latest visual satellite image shows a very broad circulation with the LLCC being cloud covered. IR images, though, show very little convective activity near the center. Computer models are not expecting this to strengthen although it could probably enhance the SW Monsoon and influence the weather in Mindanao.

Across the Philippines, scattered rain showers continue to pour as a result of a strong SW Monsoon. Mostly cloudy skies overspread much of Luzon bringing high chance of precipitation. Same goes for Visayas, although more scattered and relatively lesser chance of rain. Mindanao, especially the Eastern part, will have higher chance for rainfall. Also never rule out isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon.

If Invest 90W is upgraded to a Tropical Depression today, we will release a warning at around 12am Philippine Time, or at 6am Philippine Time, depending when it gets upgraded.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 071111

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