Monday, July 11, 2011

Tropical Depression 08W Update #01 [NEW]

JTWC and JMA have finally upgraded Invest 90W into a Tropical Depression. The former is now issuing 6-hourly tropical updates while the latter is yet to post 3-hourly updates.

Tropical Depression 08W was last located approximately 1400km east northeast of Guam (west of Wake Island). A recent AMSRE microwave image shows continuous convective activity wrapping into a LLCC, especially south and east of the storm center. ASCAT pass shows 20-30kt (and even 35kts) winds, with the strongest located on the eastern and northeastern side of the center. Minimum pressure is around 1005mb.

The storm, right now, is in a favorable environment both upper levels and near-surface. It's northwestern quadrant, however, will be slower to develop due a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) northwest of the system. It is expected TD 08W will continue to intensify, perhaps, becoming a Tropical Storm today. It is also likely it will become a Typhoon later this week. Forecast tracks show the storm moving westward. JTWC's forecast and its prognostic reasoning is a bit interesting, especially for those of you in the Philippines. The said agency is predicting TD 08W will eventually turn west southwestward as it enters the PAR. Now it's not saying it will hit the Philippines, but the JTWC seems to be banking on an interaction with a future disturbance (possibly Invest 92W) east of the Philippines. Please note these kinds of forecasts many days out change daily so always be ready and informed.

We will try to have another TD Warning by around 6am today (Philippine Time). If not, look for our 3pm TD Warning for in-depth discussion with our first Forecast Track.
Issued (1830 UTC) 230am PhT 071211

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