Saturday, July 9, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 94W remains weak as it drifts east of Taiwan. PAGASA is now classifying this storm as a Tropical Depression with a local name of "Goring". Remember that JMA has begun to classify this as a TD yesterday afternoon. JTWC, on the other hand, downgraded the probability to "Low".

Invest 94W or "Goring" was last located approximately 140km east of Taipei, Taiwan or about 500km north of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds, based on reports from Miyakojima and Taiwan, are around 20-30kph and with a minimum pressure of 1002mb. The system is moving north-northwestward at around 8kph. Strong northerly wind shear of 30-40kts continues to dampen the development of 94W, displacing the majority of convection south of the low-level center. As we have said in our past updates, the area is just not conducive for tropical cyclone development and we don't expect Invest 94W (or TD) to linger around further. Nevertheless, this LPA will continue to bring rains throughout Taiwan and eventually to Eastern China.

Image from NRLMRY. Blue arrows indicate direction of wind. Red arrow indicates the forecast track.

Invest 90W meanwhile, continues to move away from Wake Island. It is slowly developing and it is in somewhat favorable environment. Computer models are in good agreement as to the formation of a tropical cyclone in this area within the next day or so.

SW Monsoon will continue to bring scattered rain showers throughout the Philippines today, especially across northern half of Luzon.

Stay tuned for our 4pm post for the complete tropical update.
Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 071011

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