Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Juaning) Update #9

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Bagyong Juaning) is now moving closer to Aurora while continuing to intensify at the same time. It was last located approximately 150km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. Juaning is moving west northwestward 15kph.

TS Juaning's structure continues to improve as it takes on an eyewall-like structure. Microwave image shows excellent formation in the lower levels and an improving upper-level structure. The IR images also show convective activity is still strong and the northern periphery has really improved over the past 6 hours. Light to moderate rain will continue and will increase in occurence and intensity all across Luzon. Heavy rain around the storm center will also begin to affect Eastern Seaboard of Northern Quezon and Aurora, particularly Dingalan, Baler, and Casiguran.

Please refer to PAGASA or news channel for the latest on Signal Warnings. I do want to note that as of 5am today, Metro Manila is still under Signal Warning #2.

We are forecasting Juaning to make landfall soon, in as little as two hours (8am) near Baler, Aurora. It will then pass through Nueva Ecija, weakening to a Tropical Depression. By this afternoon, it should be moving across Western Pangasinan. The center will exit Luzon by as early as 5pm today. Strong winds and rain extend as far as 150km away from the center. Provinces of Aurora, Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Bulacan, NCR, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, and Mt. Province will certainly feel the strongest of winds and heaviest of rains throughout today.

Our nex update will be around 9am, if not the next one will be 12pm.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 072711

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