Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Juaning) Update #8

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Bagyong Juaning) has intensified a little bit more as it moves east of Polilio Island. Juaning was last located approximately 170km east northeast of Manila or about 30km east of Polilio Island. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph gusting to 120kph. Juaning is moving northwestward at 15kph.

Winds from Juaning are now making their way towards Luzon plains with NAIA (Manila Airport) reporting north-northwesterly winds of about 15kph, as well as falling barometric pressure. Rain on the other hand will continue affecting majority of Luzon.

TS Nock-Ten (Juaning) continues to develop and consolidate based on the latest IR images. Convective activity remains excellent on the western and southern quadrants with the northern half becoming better by the hour. Juaning still has at least 3 hours to go before landfall so it is still possible that it intensifies a little bit more.

Our latest forecast for landfall is near Baler, Aurora, just south of Casiguran by around 8am today. Winds could be as high as 100kph by that time. If you look at our forecast map, we are still including Northern Quezon, Dingalan, and Casiguran in our forecast cone. It means that Juaning could still make landfall in these places instead of Baler if it suddenly changes direction. Juaning will weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Western Pangasinan later this morning. By Wednesday afternoon (2pm), it should be moving just north of Dagupan City. It will exit Luzon later this afternoon (5pm).

The provinces of Aurora, Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, and Pangasinan will receive the strongest winds and heaviest rains. Juaning's closes point of approach to Manila will be around 10am this morning as it tracks within 100km north of Metro Manila. The NCR, likewise, will receive gusty winds and moderate rains of 10-30mm/hr rates and occasional heavy rains of up to 50mm/hr.

Next update will be around 6am.
Issued (1930 UTC) 330am PhT 072711

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