Sunday, June 19, 2011

TS 6W (Egay) Update #7

TS 06W (Egay) is now moving across Luzon Strait towards West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). It was last located approximately 180km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph. TS 06W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

5am warning from PAGASA is not out yet.

Rain will continue across much of Northern Luzon as well as gusty winds. Southern and Central Luzon will also experience scattered rain showers throughout today due to the SW monsoon. Latest METAR reports from Clark and NAIA indicate light rain and winds.

The 12z run from computer models continue to depict a westward track for TS 06W. The CMC is the western outlier, tracking it towards Hainan; NOGAPS is the eastern outlier, forecasting it to track towards Southeastern China and make landfall in Guangdong Province on Tuesday. The median solution looks to be a landfall near Hong Kong on Wednesday. This solution is supported by ECMWF and GFS. Most of the models are also forecasting TS 06W to strengthen a little bit while in the West Philippine Sea due to relatively more favorable conditions.

Our updated forecast track will be released at 3pm today.

Meanwhile, the low pressure east of the Philippines continues to develop. It was last located approximately 200km north of Palau. Koror Int'l Airport is reporting northwesterly winds of 30-40kph. Computer models forecast this to become a cyclone in 2 days.
Issued (2030 UTC) 430am PhT 062011

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