Sunday, June 19, 2011

TS 06W (Egay) Update #6

Moderate vertical wind shear has hampered TS 06W's development as it moves near Eastern Luzon. TS 06W (Egay) was last located approximately 140km east of Tuguegarao, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph. TS 06W is moving northwestward at 15kph.

As of 11am today, Signal Warning #1 is in effect for Aurora,Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Batanes Group of Islands, Kalinga, Abra, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.

Latest rain reports from Luzon indicate 24-hour rainfall amounts of 50-100mm. Expect light to moderate rain to continue in Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila today. Areas under Signal #1 should also expect moderate rain with pockets of heavier rain and thunderstorms throughout today into tomorrow.

We have shifted our forecast track significantly to the west although it still remains east of JTWC and PAGASA forecasts. We are expecting TS 06W to make landfall somewhere in northern Cagayan (near Sta. Ana) tonight. It will continue to track WNW-ward across Luzon Strait towards Southeastern China. Projected landfall is somewhere in Guangdong Province on Tuesday night. We are not expecting TS 06W to intensify significantly due to unfavorable conditions (only reaching a peak intensity of around 85kph sustained).

Meanwhile, we are also watching an area of developing low pressure well east of the Philippines. ASCAT pass picked up an elongated circulation centered approximately 420km southeast of Yap. Numerous computer models are forecasting this system to slowly develop and become a tropical storm in about 5 days. JTWC is currently giving this LPA a "medium" chance.

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 061911

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