Saturday, June 18, 2011

Tropical Storm 06W (Egay) Update #5

06W (Egay) was upgraded to a tropical storm last night.

TS 06W was last located approximately 200km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts reaching up to 85kph. TS 06W is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

The system is struggling to intensify, despite warm sea temperatures and outflow, mainly because of moderate northeasterly wind shear. The convection, therefore, remains to the western half of the storm center. This also means that moderate to heavy rain will continue to affect the eastern seaboard of Luzon.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #1 for Polilio Island, Quezon, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Kalinga, Abra, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.

Other areas in Luzon, including Metro Manila, will also experience light to moderate rain with gusty winds at times.

Latest computer models continue to depict a westward solution. Most of them are showing TS 06W to track across Luzon Strait before heading off to Southeastern China. We MIGHT have to change our forecast here although we'll wait for the 00z model runs before updating our forecast track (which is released at around 3pm).
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 061911

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