Thursday, June 16, 2011

Tropical Update

Watching two low pressure systems today; Invest 97W and a new Invest 98W. 96W and 94W have dissipated.

97W has moved westward this past 24 hours and is now located approximately 420km east of Davao. Circulation is still there, picked up both by IR satellite and ASCAT pass showing 20-30kph winds. Convection remains unorganized with cold cloudtops forming mainly on the southern side. Computer models are still keen on developing this into a cyclone this weekend with CMC and GFS leading in terms of strength. Right now only the UKMET is showing a landfall in eastern Luzon. JTWC maintains the "Medium" chance for this LPA.

98W just formed last night. Located well east of Mindanao, approximately 350km southeast of Palau. Convection is still unorganized although ASCAT is picking up weak cyclonic (counter-clockwise) winds in the area. Some computer models are also showing this developing into a storm sometime next week.

Both LPAs are under weak wind shear and high sea temperatures. It looks like 97W has a better chance of developing.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 061611

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