Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Tropical Update

We are watching THREE low pressure areas forming east and west of the Philippines.

Invest 94W

This LPA is in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). It was last located 780km west of Manila. A weak circulation is observed by satellites although convection is poorer compared to yesterday. JTWC is still giving this system a "Medium" rating and the JMA is actually classifying this as a tropical depression with 30-35kph winds. Most computer models are no longer developing this into a cyclone but we'll keep on monitoring.

Invest 97W

This LPA is located just east of Mindanao: about 500km east of Davao City. ASCAT pass show weak circulation with winds of 10-20kph. It is still in its infancy and convection is just beginning to organize.

Invest 96W

This LPA seems to have the best chance of becoming a cyclone this week. The circulation was last located 150km east of Palau. Convection is not all that great either.


What is interesting about these two LPA's (97W and 96W) is how close they are to each other, less than 1000km. So if anything were to form around this area, one has to give way and right now we are thinking it is 97W. There is increasing consensus among computer models of a cyclone forming here in 2-3 days so it looks like it's either 97W and 96W so we will have to wait and see. If something does form, models keep it just east of the Philippines, although a few of them actually bring it to Luzon. It is still very far away so lots of uncertainties. Be sure to read our latest Tropical Update released around 4pm Philippine Time.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 061511

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