Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 92W looks much better now than yesterday in terms of development and organization. Recent satellite and microwave images show convection has improved and banding near the circulation center is becoming more defined. Latest observations from NAIA in Manila shows pressure of around 1004mb and winds out of the east northeast at 25-30kph. The chances for this system becoming a tropical depression has been raised to "Medium" by JTWC.

If it does become a depression, intensification will be slow since it is still moving across land. Once it gets to South China Sea in 3 days, we expect faster rate of strengthening. Computer models aren't really showing a strong system from Invest 92W but they could just be having problems handling this LPA as it is right now. Remember that the forecasts change every run.

As for the rain, places in Central and Southern Luzon are reporting amounts of between 50-100mm for a 24 hour period. Due to recent developments regarding convection and organization, expect higher amounts of rainfall to continue in the next few days. As always, flashfloods and landslides are likely.

Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 060811

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