Tuesday, June 21, 2011

TS Haima Update #9/TD 07W (Falcon) Update #1

(NB: This post has been edited at 335pm PHT to account for the latest development regarding the upgrade to a Tropical Storm Haima issued by JMA just 10 minutes ago.)

Tropical Depression 06W has just been upgraded to a tropical storm as it continues to move across northern West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). It was last located approximately 350km south of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph. Convective activity has improved compared to 12 hours ago and satellite images show better banding. The system is still encountering moderate wind shear, however, which suppresses the development.

The forecast has been shifted to the west again to account for the continued west southwestward movement. WE are now forecasting a landfall in Southwestern Guangdong Province, about 500km west of Hong Kong. It'll weaken again just before landfall on Thursday morning (Philippine Time).

Meanwhile, a Tropical Depression has formed east of the Philippines. TD 07W or "Falcon" was last located approximately 670km east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph. The system is moving west northwestward at 20kph. JTWC is not classifying this as a depression yet although a TCFA has already been issued for the system. We expect them to upgrade it to a TD tonight.

Computer models are in pretty good agreement with regard to the medium-range track for this storm. Intensification will be slow but continuous. It could become a tropical storm in 24-36 hours and possibly a typhoon in 2-4 days. We are expecting the storm to turn away from Luzon on Thursday. The above map shows a simplified forecast for TD 07W. We will issue our preliminary detailed forecast track for the said system on tomorrow's 3pm update.
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 062111

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