Monday, May 9, 2011

TS Aere (Bebeng) Update #9

Tropical Storm Aere (Bagyong Bebeng) is now moving across northeastern Luzon. It was last located approximately 100km north of Casiguran, Aurora or about 80km southeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan. It has weakened since it made landfall; maximum sustained winds are now at 80kph. TS Aere is moving north-northwestward at 15kph.

Much of our short-term forecast from our previous update (#8) haven't changed. By 4 or 5pm, TS Aere should be within 20-30km of Tuguegarao. By 8pm tonight, TS Aere should be within 20km of Aparri, Cagayan. We also expect winds to continually decrease, but still remain within Tropical Storm strength. TS Aere will then pass by Basco, Batanes on Tuesday morning. The storm should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility as early as Wednesday morning, passing near Okinawa, Japan by Wednesday night. It might also regain some strength on its way to Okinawa, as depicted by the models. Aere should then weaken rapidly by Thursday as it encounters hostile environment up north.

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 050911

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