Monday, May 9, 2011

TS Aere (Bebeng) Update #10

Major changes to our short-term forecast.

It has been very difficult tracking Tropical Storm Aere (Bagyong Bebeng) these past few hours due to its erratic movement as it traverses Isabela and Cagayan provinces. Recent satellite and microwave images, though, have helped us locate the center of the storm and its current movement as well. We have fair confidence about TS Aere's latest position which is approximately 60km east of Tuguegarao. Remember that we have earlier forecast Aere to pass 20km east of Tuguegarao. Clearly this hasn't happened, nor will we see it track close to Aparri, unless a major turn happens soon.

Current trends show TS Aere moving generally northward. It should reach Sta. Ana, Cagayan (about 60km east of Aparri) by 9pm tonight. Storm strength appears unchanged so expect winds to remain at around 70-80kph for the next few hours.

Storm Signal Warning #2 for Cagayan and Isabela. Signal #1 for Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Babuyan, Calayan Group of Islands, and Batanes. From PAGASA as of 5pm PhT

Again, this is a change on our short-term forecast. We will correct our medium-term forecast (if needed) later on our 3am storm update.

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 050911

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