Saturday, May 7, 2011

TS Aere (Bebeng) Update #4

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng) has made landfall in Catanduanes earlier this morning. This disrupted the storm's strengthening although recent satellite images show deep convection near the center has begun to improve again. Aere was last located approximately 100km north northwest of Virac, Catanduanes. The storm is now moving WNW at around 15kph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 95kph with gusts reaching up to 120kph. Aside from the winds, Tropical Storm Bebeng is also bringing heavy rains along parts of the Bicol Region and to Samar Provinces. According to WMO, Catarman, Northern Samar, has recorded more than 300mm of rain in the past 24 hours; Masbate reported 180mm while Catbalogan reported 150mm.

10 provinces are still under Public Storm Signal Warning #2 by PAGASA: Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, and Isabela. Signal #1 remains in effect for Sorsogon, Albay, Northern Samar, Southern Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Ifugao, and Southern Cagayan.

The forecast for TS Aere remains generally the same. TS Aere should continue tracking west northwestward, gaining some more strength (possibly just below the typhoon-threshold). Our forecast landfall is somewhere north of Casiguran, Aurora early Monday morning. Aere will then weaken, becoming a Tropical Depression before re-emerging off Luzon Strait by Monday evening/early Tuesday. The models are still in disagreement as to when the storm will recurve to Okinawa. GFS is the earliest with the turn while the NOGAPS is the latest. We are going with a blend of these models and we are generally expecting that Aere will avoid hitting Taiwan directly.
Forecast Track

PSWS as of 11am

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 050811

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