Sunday, May 8, 2011

TS Aere (Bebeng) Update #5

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng) has regained its strength after being weakened by the land interaction early Sunday morning. Maximum winds are back to 95kph. Aere was last located around 310km east northest of Manila or about 70km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. The storm is moving to the northwest at about 15kph.

Signal # 2 is raised for Camarines Norte, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, and Isabela. Signal #1 for Camarines Sur, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Mt. Province, Ilocos, Sur, Kalinga, Cagayan, and Metro Manila.

TS Aere (Bebeng) is forecast to make landfall in 2-3 hours. Based on current trends, Aere is likely to make landfall in Southern Isabela; 60km northeast of Casiguran. It will then weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses the rugged terrain of Luzon. It will pass by Tuguegarao and Aparri before exiting the island late Monday night. Aere should then make a turn to the northeast, possibly heading towards Okinawa. Models are in good agreement about the short to medium range forecast; NOGAPS is the western outlier on the storm track.
Issued (20 UTC) 4am PhT 050911

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