Saturday, May 7, 2011

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng) Update #3

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng), last located 500km east southeast of Manila, has strengthened considerably these past 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85 kph with occasional gusts reaching up to 100kph. The storm structure continues to get better with improved banding and convection, especially near the circulation center.

There are some changes regarding our forecast for TS Aere. Based on latest satellite images, it looks like the storm is moving more towards the west than what was forecast. Therefore, we have shifted our forecast track to the south, with the storm possibly making landfall in Catanduanes in the next few hours. Aere will continue moving WNW making its second landfall near Casiguran, Aurora by Monday morning. Computer models are generally in good agreement as to the track with the GFS being the southern outlier and the CMC being the northern outlier. Right now, our forecast agrees with that of the NOGAPS' and the UKMET's which are a compromise of the two solutions by the GFS and CMC (haven't seen the ECMWF yet as of posting time). Furthermore, based on current trends, TS Aere is forecast to gain a peak intensity just below the typhoon-threshold which is around 110kph. It will quickly weaken though as it crosses Northern Luzon.

PAGASA, meanwhile, has raised Storm Signal Warning # 2 to Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Southern Quezon, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar. The following areas are under Signal #1: Biliran, Masbate, Romblon, Marinduque, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quirino, Isabela, Eastern Samar, and Western Samar.

Forecast TrackPublic Storm Warning Signal as of 11pm

Issued (1830 UTC) 230am PhT 050811

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