Friday, May 6, 2011

TS 03W (Bebeng) Update #2

Tropical Storm 03W (Bebeng) continues to organize as it moves towards Luzon. Although it didn't gain strength these past 12 hours, satellite images show improved banding near the center; convective activity is still mainly confined in the western half of the system, however. Because of this, moderate to heavy rain continue to drench parts of Visayas and the Bicol Region. Catbalogan, Samar, for example, has received 150mm of rain these past 24 hours. Rainfall amounts in the region are expected to rise further so floods and landslides are highly likely.

PAGASA has raised Public Storm Signal Warning #1 to the following areas: Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao, Burias Is., Polilio Is., Leyte, Samar, and Biliran. These areas should expect gusty winds and rainfall amounts of as much as 200mm in a 12 hour period.

TS 03W (Bebeng) is forecast to continue its present movement, strengthening along the way. It will reach a peak intensity of around 100kph before making landfall somewhere near the Aurora-Isabela border on Monday morning. It will then weaken to a tropical depression as it moves across Northern Luzon. It will exit the island by Tuesday as a weak TD.

Satellite Analysis

Forecast Track

Issued (0630 UTC) 230pm PhT 050711

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