Friday, May 6, 2011

TD 03W (Bebeng) Update #1

LPA 93W has finally been upgraded into a tropical depression. TD 03W (also known as "Bebeng") was last located 750 km southeast of Manila. It is moving to the northwest at around 5kph. Overall structure has improved as well as the convective activity of the storm therefore we expect TD 03W to continue strengthening, possibly becoming a Tropical Storm as early as tonight.

TD 03W is forecast to continue to track northwestwardly--reaching a peak intensity of around 90-100kph. It is expected to make landfall in Northern Luzon as a tropical storm either on Monday or Tuesday. It will then weaken to a tropical depression before exiting to South China Sea, on its way to Taiwan.

As for Invest 94W, the ECMWF model has backed away from its 00z forecast of a TS hitting Visayas next week. The said disturbance does not look impressive just yet but most computer models are still hinting of a tropical system forming around this area by next week.

Issued (19 UTC) 3am PhT 050711

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