Thursday, May 5, 2011

Tropical Update

LPA 93W is still below tropical-depression strength but is trying to get its act together. A circulation center was last spotted approximately 800 km southeast of Manila. Weather agencies are still expecting 93W to become a tropical depression as early as tonight.

The forecast for 93W, should it become a TD, calls for a continuous movement to the northwest, tracking parallel to the eastern coast of the Philippines. Computer models are also coming into agreement as to the track of this system. Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Southern Luzon should expect occasional rain and gusty winds beginning tomorrow. It is possible that the system could make landfall in Northern Luzon this weekend. The system is also expected to enhance the Southwest flow bringing additional rain to parts of the country.

Meanwhile, another broad area of disturbance has been spotted well east of the Philippines, near the Northern Mariana Islands. Some computer models are forecasting Invest 94W to become a tropical storm next week. It is still early to forecast the track and the strength, however.

Issued (630 UTC) 230pm PhT 050611

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