Saturday, May 21, 2011

Tropical Storm Songda Update #5

04W has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm. It now has an international name of "Songda". The tropical storm was last located about 100km west northwest of Yap. It has maximum sustained winds of 65kph. Songda is moving WNW at 10kph. The wind shear in the area has begun to relax and so we expect it to continue strengthening as it moves across the Philippine Sea. TS Songda should enter the PAR later tonight; it will be named "Chedeng" by PAGASA.

TS Songda is forecast to become a typhoon late Monday. It could become a major typhoon (Category 3) this Wednesday or Thursday depending on the rate of intensification. Right now, we still don't think it will Luzon and the models are not in good agreement with the track either.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 052211

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