Sunday, May 22, 2011

TS Songda ("Pre-Chedeng") Update #6

Tropical Storm Songda continues to intensify as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 1700km southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 95kph with gusts reaching up to 120kph. Songda is moving WNW-ward at 10kph. It should enter the PAR early tomorrow. Once it does, it will be named "Chedeng" by PAGASA.

The latest satellite pass indicates an improved structure with convection building around the center. An eye is also forming based on this microwave imagery from NRLMRY, indicative of the rapidly developing storm.

Our forecast have shifted slightly to the west to account for the trends from the computer models today. Now based on the data there is a medium chance that TS Songda will hit Luzon. A number of computer models are indicating this including the NOGAPS, UKMET, and the ECMWF. As for the strength, we believe this intensification will continue throughout the next few days. It might even undergo a burst of rapid intensification beginning tomorrow. TS Songda could become a typhoon as early as tomorrow and a major typhoon, with winds of more than 180kph, on Wednesday.

These forecasts can change so keep it right here for updates with regard to the changes in the track.
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 052211

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