Saturday, May 21, 2011

TD 04W Update #4

Tropical Depression 04W continues to battle low to moderate vertical wind shear and thus struggles to organize and gain strength. Maximum winds right now are at 55kph, TD 04W is moving west northwestward at 10kph. Based on the IR image from NRLMRY (below), convection is mainly confined on the southern half, with the northern half being sheared away. Also notice some convection on the northeastern side trying to wrap around the circulation center (in red).

Based on latest data, it seems the wind shear around TD 04W is finally relaxing. If it continues, which is what the forecast is, the environment should be favorable again for TD 04W to become a tropical storm, and then a typhoon. This is what the computer models are generally showing with regards to development.

Our forecast track is on the western half of the model outputs. We think TD 04W is going to continue moving WNW, eventually entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility possibly tomorrow. When that happens, TD 04W will be named "Chedeng" by PAGASA.

TD 04W is forecast to strengthen again in the next 1-2 days becoming a tropical storm on Sunday and then becoming a Typhoon perhaps on Monday night. Our track takes it near the Philippines (Luzon) although right now, we don't expect TD 04W to make landfall in the country. Of course it's still too far away so keep it right here for updates and changes with the forecast.
Issued (730 UTC) 330pm PhT 052111

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