Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Tropical Depression 15W Update #1

Tropical Depression 15W has formed southwest of Guam. TD 15W currently has winds of 45kph. It is moving west southwest at 15kph. Computer models are forecasting this system to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. The models are also predicting a turn to the northwest.

It's still too early to post a detailed forecast track but we have plotted a possible track for this depression based on the models. There is a fair chance this storm will impact the Philippines, but that won't happen until late this week. As for the strength, we expect TD 15W to continue strengthening, becoming a tropical storm possibly tonight. It could even reach typhoon status before moving close to the Philippines but that is still days away so nothing is certain yet.

The other low pressure area, the one that's closer to the Philippines, is forecast to become absorbed by TD 15W. In case it doesn't, it could bring moderate rain to parts of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon.

Issued (0630 UTC) 230pm PST 101310

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