Sunday, October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon Juan Update #16

Super Typhoon Juan (Megi) has maintained its strength as it moves west southwestward towards Northeastern Luzon. Maximum winds are still at 285kph with winds gusting up to 350kph. Juan is moving wsw at 20kph.

The image above is from CIMSS showing the IR imagery of STY Juan (Megi). You can see the Central Dense Overacast, or the whitish part that surrounds the eye. It is an area of very thick clouds and where heavy rain and strong winds are starting to occur. Right now, that CDO is beginning to interact with the northeastern tip of Luzon. Coastal areas in Cagayan and Isabela will now be experiencing deteriorating conditions. Areas further inland like Tuguegarao will also start seeing strong gusts and moderate to heavy bursts of rain.

We have also noted the apparent south shift of Juan. Based on the latest images, it looks like Juan is moving farther south than what is forecast few hours ago. Therefore, we now expect a landfall somewhere around Cagayan/Isabela border; at least within 100km southeast of Tuguegarao. Landfall time is around 9am PhT.

For reference, we have posted the Public Storm Signal Warnings from PAGASA (issued around 11pm PhT).

"PSWS # Signal No. 4( >185 kph winds)
Cagayan, Isabela
Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao,Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Northern Aurora
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Rest of Aurora
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Polillio Island, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales Northern Quezon, Metro Manila, Rizal

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Residents in coastal areas under signals # 4, # 3 and # 2 are alerted of possible storm surges. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions, monitor the hourly updates and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow."

For more info, visit PAGASA at

We will try to have another update by 5am PhT.
Issued (1830 UTC) 230am PhT 101810

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