Sunday, October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon Juan Update #15

Super Typhoon Juan (Megi) has intensified further and is now in the (to quote JTWC) "UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH". Juan is now undergoing one final burst of intensification, just like what we forecast earlier. Recon reports have indicated pressure readings of around 890mb, indicative of how intense and strong this system is. The winds are the strongest in a long time, for many agencies. In fact, based on JMA data, only two other storms have surpassed the 220kph mark: Typhoon Bess, and Typhoon Tip.

Back to Juan. Super Typhoon Juan was last located around 300km east of Aparri. It has begun to turn to the west southwest now just like in the forecast. However, it looks like Juan is moving faster than expected so we may have to adjust the landfall timing. If Juan continues to move like this, we expect a landfall around 80km southeast of Tuguegarao; that's a significant shift south compared to our previous forecast. Landfall time is around 8am Monday PhT. Expected strength is around 280kph with gusts of up to 350kph. Together, with destructive winds, expect very heavy rain to accompany this super typhoon. Rainfall rates of as much as 200mm every 6 hours near the center is likely.

If you live in the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Ifugao, Quirino, and Mt. Province and you haven't evacuated yet, do it now. However, it does seem unsafe going out in the middle of the night. Just hope for the best.

Continuing the forecast, Juan will continue moving west southwest after landfall.. It will weaken to a Category 2 typhoon as it moves near Baguio City (within 100km). It will exit the island of Luzon late Monday evening (around 11pm) somewhere in La Union (or southern part of Ilocos Sur). Again, by this time Juan has weakened to a Cat 2 but it will still be a very powerful storm and due to its huge coverage, I expect Metro Manila to get some gusty winds and light to moderate rain although nothing too serious compared to what the provinces up north are going to get.

We will try to have an in-depth forecast very early tomorrow. Although no video updates until 3pm Monday.

Stay safe everyone!!!
Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 101710

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