Sunday, October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon Juan Update #17

ALERT: There is a significant change in the forecast track!

Super Typhoon Juan (Megi) remains a very strong Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of as high as 285kph; winds could occasionally gust up to 350kph. PAGASA will update shortly their public storm signal warnings at 5am so please refer to their website for the latest:

Satellite images seem to suggest that Super Typhoon Juan is currently tracking farther south than what is forecast. Therefore, we have shifted our forecast track a little bit to the south.

We now expect landfall to occur somewhere around Isabela/N. Aurora. Landfall time is around 10-11am today. STY Juan is forecast to have max winds of up to 285kph upon landfall. It will then continue tracking generally westward towards Quirino, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and La Union throughout the day Monday. At around 10pm Monday night, Juan should have considerably weakened to a weak Category 3/strong Category 2, and is forecast to be 50km north of Baguio or roughly 80km south of Vigan. TY Juan will then exit the island of Luzon by midnight. At 2am Tuesday, Typhoon Juan will approximately be 90-100km northeast of Dagupan City, Pangasinan.

Expect rain rates to be around 100-150mm in 6 hours; as much as 200mm/6hrs could be experienced very near the center. Furthermore, expect higher winds in mountainous areas, not to mention possible landslides and mudslides.

Again this is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. Always refer to PAGASA for the latest official warnings and information regarding Super Typhoon Juan.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 101810

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