Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Tropical Storm Meranti Update #04

Tropical Storm Meranti was last located approximately 300km west northwest of Basco, Batanes. Maximum winds remain at 65kph. Meranti is moving to the north at 15kph.

(There is a major change with our forecast.)

Meranti suddenly moved to the northeast this morning, contrary to the previous forecasts. JTWC attributed this sudden movement to a direct cyclone interaction between TS Meranti and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, or a TUTT cell. (This type of interaction usually complicates the forecasts which can lead to huge errors, especially in the Northwest Pacific.) Because of this, we have shifted our forecast track to the right. We now expect TS Meranti to continue moving north, eventually making landfall northeast of Xiamen, China on Friday (RP Time); some intensification before landfall is likely. TS Meranti is expected to rapidly dissipate as it interacts with the terrain in Southern China.

Due to the somewhat unpredictable nature of direct cyclone interactions, it is possible to have significant errors with regards to our forecast track. Always consult the local weather bureau for up to date tropical cyclone information.

Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PST 090910

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