Saturday, October 17, 2009

Typhoon Ramil Strengthens

TY Ramil entered the PAR yesterday afternoon and has continued to intensify ever since. Latest satellite images show Ramil is about 820km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes. It has winds of over 150kph now and gusts of up to 200kph. Ramil is moving NW and has slowed down. It will turn more northward in the next few hours due to interaction with a trough in the north. As this trough moves out though, a ridge of high pressure will once again steer Ramil into the Northern Luzon.

No significant changes in forecast though. Some models have changed the general path of the storm; the forecast outlook for landfall location has been a bit more to the north--a stronger influence of the aforementioned trough is now being considered by some forecast models. Timing hasn't changed, neither did the strength. Landfall will still be in Cagayan at around late Wednesday morning as a strong Super Typhoon.

Forecast track valid from 101709-101809:

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