Sunday, October 18, 2009

Ramil Nears Super Typhoon Strength

Typhoon Ramil was last spotted (about 3pm) 1,150km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora with maximum sustained winds of up to 220kph, and gustiness exceeding 280kph. It has moved ENE for the past 12 hours due to the interaction with the trough north. As the ridge begins to rebuild, Ramil will turn westward; until then, he will be almost stationary and will continue to intensify, possibly becoming a very strong Super Typhoon in the next 6 hours.

Minor changes for the forecast today includes the track and the timing. As Ramil approaches, the track becomes more north. This is attributed to the differences in forecasts for the strength of Ramil's interaction with the trough and the ridge in the past model runs. Ramil had moved slower and more east than expected, delaying its approach by at least 6 hours. That means, as per "Sa Gitna ng Bagyo" forecast, Ramil's landfall will now be in the extreme Northern Cagayan by Wednesday afternon to early evening. It will then move through Luzon Strait and hit Northern Ilocos Norte by Thursday midnight. Ramil's landfall intensity is expected to be in the Super Typhoon Strength or a Category 5 storm. It will then gradually weaken as it interacts with land but will maintain its Typhoon Status and possibly strengthen again as it heads out to China Sea. By Friday Morning, Ramil should be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
101809 530pm

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