Friday, October 16, 2009

Tropical Storm Lupit

In the next 3-6 hours, Tropical Storm Lupit will enter the PAR. Once it enters, it will be named "Ramil". The international name "Lupit" was submited by PAGASA to the WMO; the name means "cruel" in Filipino.

Lupit remains a tropical storm and continues to intensify. It might reach Typhoon Status in the next 6-12 hours. It is moving WNW at 30kph. Some models are hinting that it could track more to the north (possibly avoiding landfall)--these are the shifts we've mentioned in the previous post.

We are, however, siding with the forecast for a hit to N. Luzon. The main prognosis is that a trough will pull Lupit to the north. Following that, a High Pressure Ridge would then slow Lupit and steer it again to the West (WSW). With that, possible landfall location would be the province of Cagayan. As it nears the Philippines, there is a strong chance that it could strengthen to a Super Typhoon or a Category 5 hurricane. Its landfall intensity would be between a strong Cat 4 or a minimal Cat 5. Either way, it is shaping up to be a much stronger typhoon compared to the last two storms that made landfall (i.e. Ondoy and Pepeng). Will post our initial forecast for now; it will be updated every 24 hours, possible every 12hours by Sunday.
Chart from Typhoon2000
101609 430PM PST

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